Interactive
Iligan City · Invasive species Interactive

One of the world’s worst invasive ant species is now in Mindanao. Where does it go next?

The little fire ant is known for its painful sting. But the bigger worry may be what it could do to farmers’ livelihoods if nothing is done to stop its spread.

By Russell Aguila · Oct. 10, 2026

Side view under a microscope of a golden-brown little fire ant worker, with two long spines on its back and a 0.2 millimeter scale bar.
SpeciesWasmannia auropunctata, worker
SpecimenCASENT4034606
LocalitySikyop, Brgy. Rogongon, Iligan City
CollectedOctober 2025
Lengthabout 1.5 mm
Photo: Philip S. Ward, in Monding et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0. Cropped from Figure 2c.

The start of an invasion

In late October 2025, researchers found Wasmannia auropunctata, better known as the little fire ant, at two sites in Barangay Rogongon, Iligan City, about 20 kilometers east of the city center. The species is considered not only one of the world’s most invasive ants, but also one of the most damaging. It was the first confirmed detection in the Philippines.

The discovery was made by April Rose P. Monding and Olga M. Nuñeza of the Department of Biological Sciences, Mindanao State University – Iligan Institute of Technology, together with Philip S. Ward of the University of California, Davis. The ants turned up in every sampling method and in several microhabitats, a sign of “local establishment rather than a transient introduction,” the researchers wrote. It could be the start of an invasion of local habitats in Mindanao, and possibly other parts of the country.

Their study, published in BioInvasions Records in August 2026, found that the little fire ant now dominates most of the microhabitats surveyed, with native ants largely absent or displaced. The researchers caution that the ant’s local effects in the Philippines have not been thoroughly studied. That loss of native ants could be an early sign of a bigger problem looming for nearby farms and communities if no effective intervention is done.

Field survey, 2025
Found in the uplands, not yet detected downtown

Researchers found the ant at two sites in Barangay Rogongon in October 2025, both beside the road to Bukidnon. Days later, a hand search did not detect it at three sites closer to the city center.

Found, Oct. 28 and 30, 2025 Not detected (hand search), Oct. 31 to Nov. 1, 2025 Iligan to Bukidnon road
Source: Monding, Nuñeza and Ward (2026). Roads: OpenStreetMap contributors. Coastline: GSHHG.

Another shocking discovery

Thousands of tiny reddish-brown ants covering a patch of gray ground.
Workers foraging on the ground in Rogongon. Photo: Olga M. Nuñeza, in Monding et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0. Cropped from Figure 3a.

The study confirmed little fire ant colonies at two sites in Barangay Rogongon, Lagcong and Sikyop, both along the road connecting Bukidnon Province and Iligan City. Surveys at the same sites in 2021 did not detect the ant, but by 2025 the researchers found it common there. They used several standardized methods to look for ants, including cookie crumb baits, beating vegetation, sifting leaf litter and searching by hand.

How far the infestation reaches is still unknown. “I do not know exactly how large an area the infestation covered at Lagcong and Sikyop in October 2025, as we did not measure its full extent,” April Rose Monding, the study’s lead author, said in an email on Oct. 7, 2026. “The locations reported in the paper should therefore be treated as occurrence sites rather than boundaries of the infestation.”

The discovery itself was incidental, Monding said in an email on Oct. 9, 2026: “we were conducting a general search for ants rather than a targeted survey for the little fire ant.” She added that October 2025 “was the date of detection, rather than necessarily the date of introduction. The ants may have been present earlier.”

The ant may also have been photographed elsewhere in the country. A 2025 review of little fire ant photos on iNaturalist, a citizen-science app where people share wildlife sightings, had three reviewers check each photo. It accepted four from the Philippines: two from Luzon, in Manila and San Jose del Monte, one from Marawi and one from Mambajao in Camiguin. All four were uploaded in January and February 2025, months before the Rogongon find. The review’s authors call them potential records that still need to be confirmed by surveys (Arcos et al., 2025). Monding, who pointed to the review in an email on Oct. 10, 2026, said such photo observations should be kept apart from specimen-based records like those in her study. The Rogongon study remains the first confirmed detection in the country, based on collected specimens.

An excellent hitchhiker

“Itong Little Fire Ant, excellent hitchhiker. Pwede siyang mag-hitchhike sa ating mga sapatos, pwede sa mga gulong ng sasakyan, pwede rin siya mag-hitchhike doon sa mga agricultural products.”

Olga M. Nuñeza, MSU-IIT, on PTV’s Rise and Shine Pilipinas, Sept. 21, 2026

Little fire ants are slow on their own, but they can spread much faster by hitchhiking on people and vehicles. That is not a special ability of this species, Nuñeza explained in comments relayed by Monding on Oct. 10, 2026. Invasive ants can be carried unnoticed in soil, plants, logs and other materials, and transport by people is a major reason they spread. On their own, colonies spread slowly, from tens to a few hundred meters a year in studies elsewhere. At the 75 meters a year this story’s model uses, crossing the roughly 20 kilometers from Rogongon to Iligan’s city center would take more than 250 years. A single ride on a truck, a pair of shoes or a load of plants could cover it in a day.

Spread model, 2025 to 2045

How the ant could spread if nobody stops it

A simulation of Northern Mindanao in cells about 1.1 km wide, run 100 times. Darker areas had the ant in more of the runs. This is the middle scenario, tuned to how fast known infestations grew on Hawaiʻi Island in 1999 to 2004. The simulation includes no control efforts.

2025

The simulation starts with the two sites the researchers found: Lagcong and Sikyop.

2030

Colonies bud outward slowly. Most new patches appear along roads, where people carry soil, plants and goods.

2035

The ant got within 3 km of Iligan City’s center in 9% of runs.

2045

By 2045, it reached the city center area in 70% of runs, and the Talakag area in 83%.

2025Middle scenario
Share of runs with the ant: few → most Detection sites

Model: starts in 2025, when the ant was detected; it may have arrived earlier. 75 m a year of local spread; road trips averaging 10 km, with 10% averaging 50 km; jump rate tuned so separate infestations grow 19% a year, as on Hawaiʻi Island in 1999 to 2004 (Lee et al. 2015). Lake Lanao removed. Roads: OpenStreetMap contributors. Coastline: GSHHG.

Exposure by 2045
How often the ant reached each town

Share of 100 runs in which the ant, starting from the two Rogongon sites, got within 3 km of each town center by 2045. Differences of a few points are within run-to-run noise. The model leaves out iNaturalist photo observations, including those from Marawi, because they are not confirmed with specimens.

Scenario
Low: half the middle jump rate. Middle: Hawaiʻi’s growth in 1999 to 2004 (19% a year). High: Hawaiʻi’s growth in 1999 to 2014 (about 46% a year). Hawaiʻi counted known sites, which also grew because more people were looking (Vanderwoude et al. 2016).

No one has measured yet how fast this ant could spread in the Philippines, so we borrowed numbers from Hawaiʻi Island, where the ant was found in 1999. The chart shows three scenarios for how often the ant hitchhikes to new places, based on how fast known infestations grew in Hawaiʻi.

In a simulation run 100 times under the middle scenario, with the ant starting from the two Rogongon sites and nobody stopping it, the ant reached the area around Iligan’s city center by 2045 in 70 of the runs.

Reaching the city center matters for two reasons. First, it is the busiest part of Iligan, a highly urbanized city of about 368,000 people and the seventh most populous city in Mindanao, according to the 2024 census. More people, vehicles and goods moving in and out mean more chances for the ant to hitchhike, so it could spread much faster from there. Second, Iligan is a port city. The ant has spread around the world in shipments of plants and other goods, so from the port it could hitch a ride to other parts of the country.

What if · Not a forecast

If the ant reaches downtown Iligan

This map is not part of the simulation. It shows roads and sea routes that already connect Iligan to the rest of the country: the routes people and goods travel every day, and that a hitchhiking ant could use.

Iligan City

About 368,000 people live in Iligan, the seventh most populous city in Mindanao. The ant was found in Barangay Rogongon in 2025.

By road

Main roads run from the city east to Cagayan de Oro and Butuan, south to Marawi, west to Ozamiz and the Zamboanga Peninsula, and through Bukidnon toward Cotabato and Davao. The road past Rogongon, where the ant was found, leads to Bukidnon, the country’s top farm province. Its agriculture and fisheries output was worth ₱162 billion in 2025, the highest of any province.

By sea

As of April 2025, passenger ships left the Port of Iligan for Ozamiz and Cebu six days a week, according to the port’s schedule. These roll-on/roll-off ships carry trucks and cars along with passengers.

Via Cebu

Cebu is a major hub for domestic shipping. From there, ships sail to Manila and to ports across the Visayas and Mindanao.

Not a forecast

No one can say the ant will make these trips. But the routes already exist, and elsewhere the ant has crossed seas in shipments of plants and other goods. That is why the researchers call for stronger surveillance and quarantine.

368,132people in Iligan City, 2024 census
Barangay where the ant was found Main roads Ship routes, approximate

Population: Philippine Statistics Authority, 2024 census. Bukidnon farm output: PSA, Provincial Value of Production in Agriculture and Fisheries, 2025 (current prices). Boundaries: PSA via faeldon/philippines-json-maps. Roads: OpenStreetMap contributors. Ship routes: PPA Port Management Office of Lanao del Norte/Iligan schedule (April 2025); MARINA Philippine Nautical Highway matrix (March 2026); Trans-Asia Shipping Lines; 2GO. Sea lanes are drawn as short paths by water, not actual ship tracks.

On the farm

How the ant hurts crops without eating them

The ant’s damage to crops is mostly indirect: it guards the insects that feed on them. Scroll to follow one plant. The drawing is an illustration, not to scale.

Not after the plant

The little fire ant does not eat crops. Its main food is the sugar made by sap-sucking insects such as scales, mealybugs, whiteflies and aphids.

Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.
Honeydew

These insects feed on the plant’s sap and give off a sweet, sticky liquid called honeydew. The ants drink it.

UC IPM, n.d.; Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.
Bodyguards

In return, the ants protect the pests from their natural enemies, such as ladybird beetles and tiny parasitic wasps.

Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.; UC IPM, n.d.
Ranching

The ants also move the pests to new spots on the plant, the way a rancher moves cattle. Researchers in Hawaiʻi call it ranching.

Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.
More pests

With bodyguards, the pests multiply. In Solomon Islands taro gardens, plants with the ant carried about 50 planthoppers, a sap-sucking pest, against 18 in gardens without it.

Fasi et al. 2013
The plant pays

More pests drain more sap. Honeydew also coats the leaves, where black sooty mold grows and blocks sunlight. Plants can lose health, growth and yield.

UC IPM, n.d.; Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.
In pineapple

In pineapple, mealybugs spread the viruses behind mealybug wilt, and controlling the ants that guard them is the main way to check it. This was shown with other ant species. It has not been studied with the little fire ant.

Dey et al. 2018
mealybughoneydewlittle fire antladybird beetleant on guardcarried toa new spotsooty moldhoneydew dripswilting leavessooty moldsap-sucking pestsand the antsthat guard them
Not after the plantIt comes for the pests

Little fire ants do not damage plants directly. But they protect sap-sucking pests such as mealybugs and soft scale insects, and that can weaken crops. In Rogongon, Monding said she has seen the ants tending sap-sucking insects. One soft scale, the red-striped soft scale insect (Pulvinaria tenuivalvata), is already spreading in Bukidnon’s sugarcane fields. As little fire ant colonies grow, so does the harm to farmers and their animals, who get stung. In our farm model, harvesting the crops does not wipe out the colonies, and without intervention, the ants keep spreading.

Farm model, one hectare
One infested seedling, two fields

The same ant arrives from the farm road in a sugarcane field and a pineapple field. Each square is a 3 by 3 meter patch. Press play or drag through the months.

Sugarcane · month 0
Pineapple · month 0
No ants Ants arriving Ants abundant Abundant, mealybugs doubled
Share of field with abundant ants Share with mealybugs doubled Month shown above
Middle line of 50 runs per crop. In the model, each sugarcane harvest (months 12, 24, 36) removes the mealybugs with the cut cane and halves the ant colonies; both are assumptions. Colonies climb back above the “abundant” line within a week or two. Pineapple harvests (months 18, 30) take only the fruit. Pests build up to at most 2.8 times the ant-free level, a ratio of average planthopper counts on taro in the Solomon Islands (Fasi et al. 2013), borrowed for mealybugs as an illustration; time for a colony to reach half strength (6 months) is an assumption.
17 mo.until half a 1-hectare farm has abundant ants, at 75 m a year (basic model, no harvests)
12–80 mo.the same milestone at spread speeds of 150 to 10 m a year (basic model, no harvests)
10%cutting colonies to this strength at harvest kept a cane field below the “abundant” line for three months; halving them barely mattered. Ants remained either way, and only 50%, 10% and 1% were tested
Northern Mindanao, 2024
What’s at stake, and how strong the evidence is

Production in Region X, with what is documented about this ant in each crop. No published study gives a yield loss for any of them, so this page doesn’t estimate one.

Crop2024 output (metric tons)How the ant could cause harmEvidence
Sugarcane3,067,767High ant densities in cane monoculturesHigh densities in Colombian sugarcane (IUCN GISD). No damage figure found.
Banana1,968,561Protects sap-sucking pests; stings workersListed among crops at risk in Hawaiʻi outreach (Strohecker 2012). No yield study.
Coconut1,808,617Nests in palms; stings climbers and harvesters“A major pest of coconut, cocoa and subsistence agriculture” in the Solomon Islands (Fasi et al. 2013). Nests in palms in Trinidad (Wetterer & Porter 2003).
Pineapple1,768,311Protects mealybugs that spread mealybug wiltProven for other ant species (Dey et al. 2018); not yet documented for this one.
Coffee2,981Protects scale insects; stings pickersGalápagos pickers paid more; some plantations abandoned (Strohecker 2012).
Cacao328More sap-sucking pests; stingsSolomon Islands (Fasi et al. 2013); Brazil (de Souza et al. 1998, in Wetterer & Porter 2003). Cameroon growers once spread it against cacao bugs.

Production: Philippine Statistics Authority, Regional Statistical Services Office X. Coconut is with husk; coffee is green beans; cacao is dried beans.

Mindanao is a major agricultural hub. In 2025, its six regions produced more than a third of the country’s agriculture and fisheries output by value, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority (PSA). The 2022 Census of Agriculture and Fisheries counted about 2.5 million farms in Mindanao, a third of the country’s 7.43 million. Northern Mindanao, where Iligan City is located, accounted for 10.2 percent of that output in 2025, second only to Central Luzon.

A little fire ant invasion must be taken seriously, and not only because of its sting: it also threatens crops. Even the sting has a cost on the farm, because it can slow down planting and harvesting: where the ant is common, farm workers who are stung again and again become reluctant to work in infested fields. Farmers may also have to spend more on pesticides just to keep the colonies down, which is only a temporary fix. On Maui in Hawaiʻi, treating an infested area takes treatments every six weeks for about a year, and the ants can return from untreated land nearby.

The ant is already established in Lagcong and Sikyop, and it puts each place at risk in a different way. Lagcong is mostly cacao farms. There, the ant could build up sap-sucking pests on the trees, as it has in cacao elsewhere, and farmers would be exposed to its sting because cacao pods are harvested by hand. Sikyop is an ecotourism area that draws hikers. Visitors could be stung, and they could also become unknowing carriers of the ant, taking it home on their shoes or vehicles. Monding said traffic in Lagcong appears relatively limited, while Sikyop’s many visitors may create more chances for the ant to be carried out by accident. These are her own observations, she noted; there is no data on how people and goods move from either site (email, Oct. 10, 2026).

On people and pets

What the sting does

The ant stings rather than bites, and it is easy to miss: it is about 1.5 mm long and moves slowly. Scroll to follow one encounter, based on what agencies and researchers have recorded where the ant is already common. The drawing is an illustration, not to scale except where marked.

Under the trees

A farm worker reaches for a cacao pod. The ant lives on trunks, branches and low plants, with trails up into the canopy, and at about 1.5 mm long it is hard to see.

Monding et al. 2026
Disturbed

Shake a branch, and ants drop from the leaves onto the neck and upper body of whoever is underneath.

Strohecker 2012; Invasive Species Council 2021
Within seconds

A sharp, burning pain. Australia calls it the electric ant. One ant can sting many times, and it stings when pressed against skin, often before anyone sees it.

Wetterer & Porter 2003; PIRSA, n.d.
Hours to days

Intense itching and red welts or a rash. Pain and swelling can last several days.

Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council, n.d.; PIRSA, n.d.; Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.
In some people

Most reactions stay at the sting. Some people have a stronger allergic reaction.

Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council, n.d.
Pets’ eyes

Pets in infested areas often have cloudy corneas. Researchers have proposed stings as the cause, in people too, but a study of 100 dogs and cats called the link speculative. More in the table below.

Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.; Rosselli & Wetterer 2017; Pe’er et al. 2024
Every day

Farm workers in infested areas are stung so often that they are reluctant to work there. In parts of Hawaiʻi, people are stung even in bed and on the couch.

Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.; Wetterer & Porter 2003
cloudy spots on the cornea enlarged · real size 1.5 mm itchy welts wider swelling
Under the treesHard to see, easy to disturb

“Kung makagagat, pwede siyang mag-cause ng harm sa wildlife population, sa plants, sa agriculture, sa tao, saka sa pets.”

Olga M. Nuñeza, MSU-IIT, on PTV’s Rise and Shine Pilipinas, Sept. 21, 2026
Eyes
The eye damage claim, and how strong the evidence is

Claims that the ant damages or blinds pets’ eyes appear in fact sheets and news reports, including PTV’s report on the Iligan find. The research points to a possible link but has not proven it.

ClaimEvidenceWhat the source says
Pets in infested areas get cloudy corneasReportedAnimals in infested areas “suffer high rates of skin irritations and tropical keratopathy, a clouding of the corneas resembling cataracts” (Hawaiʻi Ant Lab, n.d.).
Stings cause small spots of damage on the cornea in people and animalsProposedTwo researchers argued, from earlier medical reports and Indigenous knowledge in Colombia, that the ant’s sting is the cause when there is no injury or infection (Rosselli & Wetterer 2017). The paper on the Rogongon find cites this.
The ant causes the eye disease seen in dogs and catsNot provenA study of 100 affected dogs and cats in Israel found owners had seen the ant near 21% of the dogs and 38% of the cats, and called the link “speculative” (Pe’er et al. 2024).
The condition often leads to blindnessNot shownIn the same study, each animal was examined once, with no follow-up. Worsening was reported in just 4% of dogs and 6% of cats (about 3 dogs and 1 cat), and the authors found most lesions did not progress. That measures worsening, not blindness (Pe’er et al. 2024).

Residents of Rogongon should stay alert and avoid little fire ants wherever they can.

Ant keeping has a following in the Philippines, and live colonies are sold online and shipped. A search of Philippine social media for this story found no verified sale of little fire ants, and this story does not suggest that anyone sells them. But the species has been sold abroad: a study of online ant sellers from 2002 to 2017 found 13 of the world’s 19 worst invasive ants for sale, including the little fire ant. No international treaty regulates the trade in ants, the study found, though some countries restrict this species: Japan bans importing, moving and keeping it.

Ants are also smuggled. In July 2026, Mexico’s environmental protection agency seized a parcel of 105 queen harvester ants bound for Laos, hidden inside toys labeled as collectible figures. They were not little fire ants, but the case shows that people try to ship live queens by mail.

The researchers call the pet trade only a speculative explanation for how the ant reached Rogongon; trade in plants and farm activities are more likely. But a hobby trade could carry it much farther. A queen that escapes with a few workers can start a new colony. If anyone were to collect colonies in Rogongon and ship them, a single escape could start a population hundreds of kilometers away. The maps and chart below show where, and how soon.

Climate and the hobby pathway
Climate is unlikely to stop it, and a parcel could skip the roads entirely

Left: how well each part of the country matches the climates where the ant lives elsewhere. Right: in a what-if where colonies are mailed out of Rogongon, where an escaped colony would most likely take hold, weighted by population and climate.

Climate match · 96.7% of land suitable in the model (87.5% in a tropics-only test)
Poorer match → better match
Where a mailed colony could take hold
Larger circle = more likelyRogongon
768 kmtypical distance from Rogongon to where an escaped colony would take hold, in the what-if
61%of new populations would start more than 600 km away, in the what-if
2041the year a new population becomes more likely than not, if one colony is mailed every year and 5 in 100 get loose. This is not a predicted date.
What if colonies were mailed every year?
How likely is it that the ant starts a new population somewhere else?

Imagine one colony is mailed out of Rogongon every year, starting in 2025. No one knows how often a mailed colony gets loose, so each line is a different guess: 1, 5, 10 or 20 out of every 100 packages. The thick line, 5 in 100, is the one used in this story. Each package has the same chance every year. The lines rise because every year adds one more package, and with it one more chance that at least one of them has started a new population.

What-if model: one colony mailed out of Rogongon each year from 2025, with a 1% to 20% chance that each one escapes; whether it takes hold uses the local climate score as a probability, which is an assumption. None of these numbers is a forecast. Destinations are weighted by population (GeoNames cities of 15,000 or more). Climate model: boosted regression trees on 1,743 occurrence records and WorldClim 2.1; cutoff 0.51. Sabah, Malaysia, is masked.

“Nagpadala na ng mga expert ’yung ating regional field office, ’yung ating Regional Crop Protection Center doon para i-check ’yung veracity.”

Asec. Arnel de Mesa, Department of Agriculture spokesperson, on PTV’s Rise and Shine Pilipinas, Sept. 21, 2026

On Sept. 21, 2026, Department of Agriculture spokesperson Assistant Secretary Arnel de Mesa said the DA’s regional field office and Regional Crop Protection Center had sent experts to check the report of little fire ants found by researchers from MSU-IIT and the University of California, Davis.

In a GMA News report published the next day, the Department of Environment and Natural Resources’ Biodiversity Management Bureau said it would work with the DA’s Bureau of Plant Industry on quarantine measures to monitor and control the ant. It asked the public to report sightings right away and not to move soil, plants or other materials out of affected areas.

Outside Mindanao, the DA’s Negros Island Region office said on Sept. 11 that it had not received any reports of the ant, but that local agriculturists were monitoring for it.

In their paper, the researchers recommend:

  1. targeted monitoring and precautionary management in Rogongon;
  2. more surveys to decide between eradication and control;
  3. monitoring in port cities across northern Mindanao;
  4. strict border checks; and
  5. public awareness campaigns.

The Department of Agriculture’s Northern Mindanao regional office was asked by email on Oct. 7, 2026, about its findings and plans. It had not responded as of publication.

The sad reality

In most places the little fire ant has invaded, it has never been fully eradicated. Individual sites have been cleared in Hawaiʻi, the Galápagos and Australia, but new infestations keep appearing, often carried in plants and soil, so treatment and monitoring continue. Hawaiʻi has been fighting the ant since 1999, and Australia has been trying to eradicate it for about 20 years. Hawaiʻi cleared a six-acre neighborhood on Oʻahu, and the Galápagos cleared a 21-hectare infestation on Marchena Island, only to find the ant elsewhere on the island in 2007 and 2008. But no one yet knows how large the infestation in Rogongon is.

Cleared, then back
Cleared once, but not gone for good

In Hawaiʻi, the little fire ant has been wiped out at single sites, then turned up again. Sometimes a few ants survived where no one found them. Other times new ants arrived in plants, soil and logs, often from Hawaiʻi Island, where the ant has been widespread since 1999. Scroll to follow it year by year.

1999

The ant is first found in Hawaiʻi on Hawaiʻi Island, where it spreads widely. The same year it turns up at Kalihiwai on Kauaʻi, on plants from an infested Hawaiʻi Island nursery. Kauaʻi treats it right away.

Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council 2015; Burnett 2011
Months later

Follow-up surveys on Kauaʻi find no ants. The infestation is thought to be gone.

Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council 2015; Bishop 2016
By 2004

The ant is found again at the same Kauaʻi site, spreading to a neighboring property. One account dates the return to 2002.

Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council 2015; Bishop 2016; Burnett 2011
2009 to 2010

On Maui, the ant is found on a farm in Waiheʻe, on less than an acre. After monthly treatments, no ants are found after February 2010, and officials say it appears to be eradicated.

HDOA 2010
2013 to 2014

In late 2013, infested hapuʻu fern logs from Hawaiʻi Island are traced to Maui and Oʻahu. In 2014 the ant is found in Waimānalo and in Mililani Mauka on Oʻahu, around 21 homes on six acres, and at Wailea and Nāhiku on Maui.

Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council 2015; HDOA 2017
2015 to 2017

No ants are found in Mililani Mauka after February 2015. In 2017, after two more years of checks, the neighborhood is declared free of the ant.

HDOA 2017, 2019a
2018 to 2019

New infestations appear in Kāneʻohe, ʻĀhuimanu, Kualoa, Lanikai and other places on Oʻahu, at Kīlauea on Kauaʻi and at Wailuku on Maui. The ant is also found in Waiheʻe again, 10 years after the first find there.

HDOA 2019a, 2019b
2022 to 2024

Sites keep multiplying. By November 2024, Oʻahu has 69 known sites, Maui 27 and Kauaʻi 15, where the largest covers about 52 acres. Many have been treated: in September 2024, 15 of the 25 sites found on Maui by then were eradicated or in final checks.

DLNR 2022; Cruz 2023; Maui Now 2024; Hawaiʻi Public Radio 2024
1999Hawaiʻi
Ants found Checked, no ants found Not clear from records Other places the ant was found

Map dots are approximate, at the town or area level. Small dots show where the ant was found, not whether it is still there; many later sites were treated, and some were cleared. Only some of the sites found by 2024 are mapped. Sources: Hawaiʻi Department of Agriculture (HDOA; 2010, 2017, 2019a, 2019b); Hawaiʻi Invasive Species Council (2015); Bishop (2016); Burnett (2011); Hawaiʻi Department of Land and Natural Resources (DLNR; 2022); Cruz (2023); Hawaiʻi Public Radio (2024); Maui Now (2024). Coastlines: GSHHG.

Even a small infestation takes years to clear, and complete eradication may not be realistic.

For people in Rogongon, the sting is what they will notice first. The damage to farms, if it comes, will be slower and quieter. Without intervention, that quiet damage could become loud.

Where the ant goes next may depend less on the ant than on the people around it. How fast it spreads will be shaped by what the government, experts and the public do. Early intervention may sting, too, in money, time and effort. But it would likely hurt far less than being stung left and right by an ant that has spread across the country.

How this was made

Data and models, limits, and how AI was used

Climate

Boosted regression trees trained 10 times on 1,743 cleaned occurrence records (GBIF.org 2026, plus the two Rogongon sites) and six WorldClim 2.1 climate variables at about 9 km. The records came from GBIF’s search on Oct. 7, 2026; a download with the same filters made that day is archived for citation and differs by 12 records after cleaning. Records likely from greenhouses or border interceptions were removed. Average AUC was 0.97 on random test records and 0.95 when whole regions were held out. At the model’s cutoff of 0.51, 96.7% of Philippine land is suitable; 87.5% with a tropics-only background.

Regional spread

A grid of 1.1 km cells across Northern Mindanao, 2025 to 2045, 100 runs per scenario. Colonies spread 75 m a year on their own, a middle value within published estimates of tens to several hundred meters a year (Montgomery et al. 2022; Wetterer & Porter 2003). People carry ants along OpenStreetMap roads, most trips averaging 10 km and 10% averaging 50 km. Jump rates are tuned to Hawaiʻi Island’s known infestations (Lee et al. 2015), which reflect searching and treatment there as well as spread; the simulation itself includes no control. Starting from the two Rogongon sites only, changing trip lengths and settling chances kept Iligan between 52% and 66% by 2045 in a smaller rerun, against 70% in the main run.

Farm and fields

One hectare in 3 m patches, weekly steps for three years, 50 runs. Spread speed tuned to 75 m a year, tested from 10 to 150 m. A new colony reaches half strength in 6 months (assumption). Sap-sucking pests build up to at most 2.8 times on infested plants, a ratio of average planthopper counts on taro borrowed as an illustration (Fasi et al. 2013: 50 versus 18 per plant). Harvest effects are assumptions. Harvest calendars are approximate.

Hobby pathway

A what-if, not a finding: one colony mailed out of Rogongon a year, with a 1% to 20% chance of escape. Destinations weighted by population and the climate score. It does not suggest that anyone in the Philippines sells this ant.

Limits

  • Scenarios, not predictions. Many settings are borrowed from other places or are assumptions.
  • No land cover: the paper found the ant in disturbed areas, not deep forest.
  • Starts only from the two Rogongon sites confirmed with specimens. iNaturalist photo observations from Luzon, Marawi and Camiguin (Arcos et al., 2025) are not included. If the ant is already in those places, the model understates how far it has spread.
  • The study’s lead author, April Rose Monding, reviewed a summary of the model’s assumptions and said none contradict her field observations (email, Oct. 9, 2026). She called 75 m a year of local spread reasonable as a scenario assumption, but said it cannot be validated for Rogongon because local spread has not been measured. She also said there is no movement data to tell whether either site would see more or less human-carried spread than Hawaiʻi (email, Oct. 10, 2026).
  • No yield or peso losses are estimated, because no published figures exist for these crops.
  • No control efforts are modeled.

Tools and credits

The models and interactive graphics were built with help from Claude Opus 5.5 (Anthropic) and reviewed with Claude Fable 5.1. The text was written by the reporter and edited and fact-checked with Claude’s help; the full article was also fact-checked with GPT-6 Astra (Ultra setting). The reporter checked all assumptions, results and sources. Photos from Monding et al. (2026), CC BY 4.0, cropped. Quotes from PTV’s Rise and Shine Pilipinas, Sept. 21, 2026. Coastlines from GSHHG (Wessel & Smith 1996).

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